So I was watching 30 Clubs in 30 Days earlier on the MLB channel.
It was the Angels edition.
I sat thinking back on how, if you're a fan of any AL West team period, the last decade has been dominated majorly and mainly by the Angels. I thought about how solid their team is, even this year, and how replacing Vladimir Guerrerro with Hideki Matsui would change nothing about how well they would play. I thought about how Mike Scioscia has been one of the better MLB Managers of the last decade, and of all time.
Then I saw that "Baseball Prospectus" had suggested the Angels would finish in last place this year.
I just about lost my shit.
Before I continue, let me make it perfectly clear that I am a Mariners fan, and I have been a Mariners fan for a long time. I've sat through the tough times and waited for a year when cheering for my team wouldn't seem pointless, a feeling no fan should ever have and possibly a feeling no fan who is not an M's fan can properly understand without perspective, unless of course you've been a Royals fan for the greater part of a decade.
Being an M's fan and having watched the AL West for years, I've got a pretty good handle on how things work. I'm a realist about the sport. I expect the M's to compete this year, but I also understand what few apparently want to accept -- the fact that it is unreasonable and unrealistic to truly expect the Mariners not only to win the west, but also to win the World Series.
I can't tell you how many times I have heard this already this spring. It's insane. It's mass insanity. The idea that the M's could take first without a problem in this division, this year of all years, is absolutely ridiculous. The idea that they would not only make it to the World Series but win it as well, is beyond all words I have to explain any comprehension of such a thought.
Two aces, Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley do not a world series team make. I'll make this as simple as I possibly can. There are players on almost every other team in the west that have better power than any of the players on the M's. The biggest power threat the Mariners have is from Jose Lopez, who might hit 20-25. Griffey is out of his prime, he's not kid anymore, even if he hits 20 out his average won't improve much, if at all. The rest is an all-american "God I hope he turns it around" group of guys in the form of Bradley, Kotchman, Garko, Byrnes, ect. Even Ken Griffey Jr, the man whose light hearted attitude supposedly loosened up the clubhouse and brought the M's to a 2nd place finish last year could not hope to drive all of these guys to play the way they know they can.
Let me put it this way: If the Mariners make it to the World Series this year, Ken Griffey Jr. will become a god of baseball in Seattle. He already is in a big way, but we're talking idol worship type of status. Nobody will be able to surpass the legend of the kid. It's a dream season, and it's the season all M's fans want. However, once you look at all the other teams in the league you start to see things more clearly.
The fact is, the Angels and the Rangers are set up from a classic "power" approach. They intend to use power to drive runs in and win games. The Angels may not have improved much, but they didn't exactly get much worse either. The Rangers improved their hitting AND their pitching. The A's...well they got Ben Sheets. However, with 2 out of 4 teams in a league coming at you from a power approach, you better have a staff full of pitchers that can keep the ball in the park.
At best, the M's have 2 aces, a 3rd in Bedard who won't be ready til halfway through the season, and a back of the rotation that will cause them problems ALL SEASON LONG. I'm not trying to say I don't have faith in Doug Fister, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Ian Snell...but....well...okay that's exactly what I'm saying. You gonna tell me I don't have reason to worry? Do you have any proof better than my list of horrible ERAs in past years to ease my fears? Somehow I doubt it. I want Ian Snell to be as good as he can be, I want to pretend we're not relying on Doug Fister even if he can get the job done, and I want to look at our subpar makeshit bullpen and see a dream come true before my eyes. Unfortunately, what I want to have happen just isn't happening. Years of being beaten down and watching this sport beat down several pretty good teams have soured me on the idea of a team of misfits being able to make something happen.
It's the plot of every major baseball related film ever made. The guys that nobody ever thought would be able to do anything actually end up doing something.
The problem is there's a difference between a MOVIE and REAL LIFE, between FANTASY and REALITY.
I look at the Angels and I see, at the very least, a team that will be giving the M's a run for their money the entire way. I look at the Rangers as a team that actually has something to prove, and very well may step up to the plate and bring their team into the mix as well. However....if any team is finishing last, it's the A's. The rest will be a long hard dogfight worthy of the tough and grizzled history of the AL West.
That's just it. If you're thinking the Angels under the helm of Scioscia are going to finish last, YOU DON'T KNOW THE AL WEST. You're ignoring the powerhouse this team has been for years on end. You're ignoring the powerhouse they STILL ARE. Will the west be tight? Yes. Will the Angels finish last? fat chance. Will the M's finish first?
A fan can certainly hope so...but can we really look at the Angels and say "piece of cake"? Good luck with that. If the M's want a chance, all of the following must happen:
Aardsma has to keep up the good work, which might be difficult for a guy who prior to last season had little experience as a closer.
Lee has to keep the ball in the park, something he notoriously had trouble with earlier in his career in Cleveland, and could yet again have problems with on the M's.
Griffey has to bring his average up from under .220 to at least .250 or .260, and hit at least 20-25 out if not more.
Bradley has to stop arguing balls and strikes, something he still has problems with as shown in ST just a few days ago. Oh, and he has to bring his average up from sub .260 to at least .280-290, and hit at least 20-25 out.
Kotchman has to hit .280-290 with 10-15 jacks.
Lopez, perhaps the guy with the most pressure on him, needs to keep up his momentum and hit those 20-25 out again while maintaining a .275-280 avg.
Bedard needs to be healthy within 2-3 months and out on the mound immediately making quality starts thereafter.
Ian Snell and Doug Fister need to post a sub 4.50 ERA and win at least 8-12 games each.
Ryan Rowland-Smith who supposedly "found himself" at the end of the season last year needs to KEEP himself.
Should Snell, Fister, or Rowland-Smith flail, the M's might do well to bring Washburn back.
Figgins needs to stay consistent and hit at least .275-280, which is being fair, and steal a lot of bases while having a gold glove.
Jack Wilson needs to stay healthy and hit at least .260
Byrnes needs to stay the hell off the field and the basepaths period. Why did they sign this guy? I wouldn't have paid even 400k for him.
Gutierrez needs to continue improving and hit at least 20 out, keeping a .280 or better average and possibly stealing a few bases as well.
Ichiro needs to steal more bases, hopefully he will be pushed by Figgins and Griffey to do so.
and of course...Griffey...needs to be God. Period.
You see the problem with the expectations here? You see how outrageous it is to expect such things? Or are you under the impression that anything less would allow the M's to compete in the West? If so....hi. Have you ever even watched a game between AL West rivals? Apparently not.
This WILL NOT be a stroll in the park, as so many have assured themselves and even journalists have declared to be fact. This is going to be as tough and tight a league as it ever have been. I want the M's to do well, and I have high hopes for them. I'm so happy to be able to cheer for my team and finally feel like it's not wasted effort. However, from a realistic standpoint I'd have to be out of my mind to discredit teams like the Rangers and Angels in the West as if they had no hope of competing with the M's this year. Such an assertion is absolutely ludicrous.
With that said, I think I'm finally done with my rant here. I'm not saying don't be hopeful, I'm saying don't be PRIDEFUL before you even know if anything will really come of it! That's just silly! Be realistic, and hope for the best and cheer your team on, but don't paint a picture before the season even starts that the M's are GOING TO WIN IT ALL. You don't know that, and while things look better this year than they have for almost an entire decade now, that doesn't mean they're destined for first place and a World Series victory. Before you start jumping for joy, just remember when they signed Sexson and Beltre and everyone thought "we've got two guys who will hit 40 a year for us!"......right. That panned out awesomely. I would argue this is a much different situation, but I'm also not going to forget the kind of issues we've had in the past with new hires.
Don't count your eggs before they hatch...or whatever that metaphor is.
Good luck to everyone and to all of your teams, just keep it real and don't expect too much -- if you expect too much you're just going to end up more disappointed in the end.
Go M's!
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I think the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers will all finish within 5 games of each other. I'd probably take the Rangers to win it right now, but it's really a toss up. The Angels also lost Lackey who you didn't mention and he's been the ace on most of their AL West championship teams, though they still have a decent rotation without him.
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TLDNR!
I understand your concern for your team, and I too think they will have a tough road ahead to win the AL West. To think the Angels will be in last is insane. I'm an A's fan, and pending a miracle, we will be in last.
But the M's have improved more on paper than I think other teams did. Getting Bradley for Silva is an upgrade, at least in potential. Picking up Figgins is good. Picking up Lee is good, even if he isn't the Cliff Lee of last year(just hope he's not the Cliff Lee that the Indians designated to the minors a few seasons ago).
I think you also need to focus less on power. The HR's will come, but it's up to the manager to not rely on the HR. They need to generate runs, get on base, steal bases, move runners into scoring position by bunting. They aren't a long ball team. I'm from the midwest, so I don't know much about their stadiums there, is their ball field even good for power?
I don't think the Rangers improved much, but they didn't slide back. Harden will be good when he's in, but don't expect 35 starts from him.
The Angels did slide back. Losing Lackey was huge to them. With the way Vlad has declined, swapping Matsui for Vlad is practically even, and might even be an improvement, we'll see.
I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for >.250 avg out of every one of our everyday guys, but trying to become a Power team in a division with 2 power teams in it already? I don't think that's what Big Z is trying to do.
Sometimes you can't fight fire with fire, I think D, smart bats are the focus this year. Small ball seemed to work well last year, I mean it didn't win us the West, or even the Wild Card. But it kept us from a losing season. throw in a few more guys that can get on base and score, and with 2 (possible) Aces in the pitching rotation? Living in a "Pitcher's" park, might just be the formula we need.
I don't claim to know as much about Baseball as you, stoudman, you seem to know your stuff. But I do like baseball, and always like learning more. Also glad I found another M's fan that I can share my inevitable grief with at the end of this season. (I think the M's can win the west, but why get my hopes up.)
EDIT: my post sat dormant for 30 mins before I hit send. Foltzie, Angles have a hitter's park, M's a pitcher's park
You care way too much about the Mariners.
ElfShotTheFood: You care way too much about the Mariners.
LOL! Yeah, perhaps.
As for the M's having a Pitcher's park, I don't think I'd put it quite like that -- I've watched our guys give up plenty of homers over the years. PLENTY. I'd say it's about even -- as much a hitter's as a pitcher's ballpark.
I agree that we need to rely on smallball, I'm just questioning how well that can actually work in a division that has so much power. To be honest, I've never really seen that strategy work that well in a division with power. Look at the Devil Rays in a division with the Yankees and the Red Sox, they didn't have success until they got some guys who could pound the ball. They tried the smallball approach for years, so to speak, and it didn't work.
Smallball works in the NL better than it does in the AL just because of the DH, but also because there are a lot of NL teams who are notorious for lacking a little power here and there, focusing mostly on winning their division and then worrying about the rest later. That's just it, though; if you're going to focus on winning your division in a division with a lot of power hitters, you're going to need at least a little firepower yourself. I've never really seen it work any other way, not in the AL, not in the West. Pitching can go a long way, and boy I hope our guys can pull out a great year for us on all fronts, but I really have become jaded over the years.
I'm a smallball kind of guy.
I understand, this is the kind of baseball we play in Seattle, and it kind of feels like it always has been. However, I just can't help but feel like that might not be enough to get us to the World Series. For their sake, I hope Griffey is right.
After all, he was the first one I heard talking about getting to the World Series.
EDIT: OH! And as for Lackey, I've never been impressed by him. He had one 19 win year in the past 4 or 5 years and struggled to win more than 13 games every other year. THAT is your ACE? Last year Weaver won 16...while Lackey had 11....that's bottom of the lineup production. True he's been a staple, he's been VERY reliable, but if you think they lose something by losing him, I don't know how you can be so deluded. They still have Piniero, a 15 game winner, as their FIFTH STARTER. Fact is, they didn't have ROOM for Lackey. You could say the same for Figgins when they've got a pretty full infield with guys like Maicer Izturis, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar, all of whom hit at least .290 last year.
The Angels are stacked. They don't need Lackey to win.
If you ask me, the division is up for grabs, but the two I expect to see fighting it out in the end are the Angels and Mariners, and something tells me the Angels might win it. They have a good enough team to win 90+ games, but the question will be...do the Mariners?
Hey I am a Diamondbacks fan and we had Eric Byrnes the last few years and I agree with you keeping him off the field. He gets hurt for 100 games a year and when he plays he hits .200 and pops the ball up every other at bat.
First off, let me say I'm a Yankee fan. With that being said, I like the M's a lot this year for that division. You can't underestimate losing Lackey for the Angels. True, the guy was hurt in recent times but he was their best pitcher. Add to that the fact that replacing Guerrero for Matsui SHOULD be a wash, but I've been watching Matsui for years now and while he still is a great hitter, it's a gamble whether or not he'll actually be able to stay healthy. The guy is playing on one good knee and can't field anymore. There's something to be said for the fact that the Yanks let Matsui go, and the Red Sox signed Lackey. The Rangers were able to stick in it because they got better pitching last season. I'm still not a believer that it'll happen again. Too many unknown quantities on the team. Meanwhile, the M's will have to play small ball in the AL to be sure, but how many teams can match a 1-2 at the top of the rotation like that? Lee and King Felix? The M's have become the Angels but with a better one two punch at the top of the rotation. The bullpen part remains to be seen but as an M's fan you should be a bit more optimistic. After all, the dynastic Yankee teams of the late 90s and early 00s never had players that hit more than 30 hrs or so and played a national league style of baseball in the AL and had tremendous success doing it. Think about facing a one two like that in a short playoff series. Had the Phillies had one more top starter they would have beaten the Yanks in this past WS.