Used game sales to take a hit...

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youngmimesofharlem replied on 02-12-2010 8:42 PM

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stoudman:

You argument is.....acceptable. Touche, dear sir, two frickin shay.

Something inside me still wants to believe that the physical copies won't die just because of how neurotic the general public is about these things. Like I said, there are plenty of people who would complain if they didn't have something to put on their shelves. However, you and Hex make good points -- the future generations in particular might not have nearly as much of a problem with it as our generations do.

The only refutation I can really make is that at this point the technology still favors physical media. Blu-ray produces better quality than most digital download sources do, and the sustainability of the disc itself is much more reliable than most hard drives. Whether this will change or not in the future remains to be seen, but until then I must concede that you may be right about this.

Your grace becomes you sir, i doff my hat.

Currently I would agree; storage space and bandwith constraints would hamstring the implementation of direct download, but i think you overestimate THIS generations attachment to physical entities when it comes to games. My laptop in particular has download games on it (EU3 and FM2009), saves carrying the disc and it's available whenever..

I think it's a case of WHEN not IF, the companies can cream too much off the top for themselves to ignore it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if in 10 years time we're playing the latest title over an internet stream, never mind a download, paying for access by the minute. That way the video game companies retain total control and move from selling 'product' to selling 'service', and piracy becomes almost impossible.

More cash money for publishers.

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Hexpane replied on 02-16-2010 12:00 PM

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Latest news today

Roughly 40 percent of Americans do not have high-speed Internet access at home, according to new Commerce Department figures ....

.. download speeds many U.S. homes with broadband get now — 3 megabits to 20 megabits per second.

The statistics show that U.S. broadband usage continues to grow, with 64 percent of U.S. households subscribing to high-speed Internet as of October, up from 51 percent two years earlier.

in rural America. While 66 percent of urban households subscribed to broadband in October, that was true for only 54 percent of rural households, the survey found.

Among households that do not have broadband, the survey found, 38 percent said they don't need it or are not interested. Twenty-six percent said it is too expensive. Only 3.6 percent said they do not subscribe because it is not available where they live.

• 89 percent of Americans with an annual household income greater than $150,000 used a broadband connection at home in October, compared with 29 percent of Americans with a household income less than $15,000.

• 67 percent of Asian Americans and 66 percent of Caucasians used broadband at home in October, compared with 46 percent of blacks and 40 percent of Hispanics.

• Home broadband usage was highest among people aged 18 to 24, at 81 percent, and lowest among people 55 and older, at 46 percent.

So what we see here is most people who do not have high speed internet, simply don't want it... ever.  This is not good news for EA and others trying to force digital only. 

The other issue here is broadband is currently too slow for the CURRENT FORMAT of 1080p 7.1.  What happens when resolutions increase?  What happens when 3D gets bigger? What happens when we are at OLED displays at super hi res?

Point being the quality of the content format is going to increase fast, probably faster than the pipes can grow.

As long as Comcast and Netflix are throttling customers, don't expect customers to willingly pay for crappy quality low speed internet only content.

It MAY be inevitable, but physical discs are not going away without a fight, and I expect the fight to last a lot longer than people think.

10 years to digital only was the SAME prediction made in 1999... that never happened.  10 years later and people are DOWNGRADING from cable to DSL for price considerations.

I know I love having my disc version of Jade Empire instead of an XBOX original version.  I'm not even sure I can fully explain why.  It's not like I can get more than $5 for the disc.

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Hexpane replied on 02-16-2010 12:10 PM

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SuperRick:

I hate patches because I think they're a result of putting a game out on the market before it's finished.  I like DLC for extra stuff, but getting a patch to fix a game you just bought is like buying a new car that doesn't work right and needs to be taken to a mechanic.

This is a common perception that is simply not backed up by truth.  For example I will use Morrowind for the XBOX.  This game was launched WITHOUT any ability to do DLC or patching.  It was launched as complete/finished no "DLC that was really held back content"  nothing.

Then a billion bugs were found.   No way to patch it.. ooops.

Another example, Ar Tonelico 2 for the PS2.  GAME STOPPING BUG at the final boss.  No way to patch.   The list goes on and on.

The point being that games that are not meant to be patched or have DLC are just as buggy as any other game.  All software has bugs.  The ability to patch was not on consoles ONLY because most consoles were never online.

Patching software exists in all realms.  Gaming, accounting software, manufacturing software, firmware for TV sets etc...

The ability to patch has not increased bugs in software, it has simply raised awareness that the bugs can be fixed via a DL instead of getting new copies of diskettes recoded from the mfg like the old days.

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zoro69 replied on 02-16-2010 12:18 PM

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"Point being the quality of the content format is going to increase fast, probably faster than the pipes can grow"

So they can use these activation codes in the interim to accomplish the same thing...Hvae a disc, but make it have little or no value after the first user.

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youngmimesofharlem replied on 02-16-2010 12:36 PM

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Hexpane:

Latest news today

 

Roughly 40 percent of Americans do not have high-speed Internet access at home, according to new Commerce Department figures ....

.. download speeds many U.S. homes with broadband get now — 3 megabits to 20 megabits per second.

The statistics show that U.S. broadband usage continues to grow, with 64 percent of U.S. households subscribing to high-speed Internet as of October, up from 51 percent two years earlier.

in rural America. While 66 percent of urban households subscribed to broadband in October, that was true for only 54 percent of rural households, the survey found.

Among households that do not have broadband, the survey found, 38 percent said they don't need it or are not interested. Twenty-six percent said it is too expensive. Only 3.6 percent said they do not subscribe because it is not available where they live.

• 89 percent of Americans with an annual household income greater than $150,000 used a broadband connection at home in October, compared with 29 percent of Americans with a household income less than $15,000.

• 67 percent of Asian Americans and 66 percent of Caucasians used broadband at home in October, compared with 46 percent of blacks and 40 percent of Hispanics.

• Home broadband usage was highest among people aged 18 to 24, at 81 percent, and lowest among people 55 and older, at 46 percent.

 

So what we see here is most people who do not have high speed internet, simply don't want it... ever.  This is not good news for EA and others trying to force digital only. 

Sorry but this part of your argument is flawed. It's not 'most people' it's 38% OF 36% of US households.

That's 13.68% of US households don't want and are not interested in broadband. Of that 13.68% how many do you think are sat there playing a current generation console (PS3, XBOX360) but are still using dial-up?

I'd be willing to bet its around 0.00%

That 13.68% aren't EA's customers ANYWAY is my point.

Look at the numbers for households with high disposable income, and the group 18-24.

Broadband take up is around 80%. These are the people EA want to sell the latest Madden incarnation to.

The resolution/capacity argument is separate and probably valid, for now.

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coweyeball replied on 02-16-2010 12:42 PM

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Well first of all I got ripped off then because a copy of Dragon Age I bought had no DLC in it, I accepted it as being because only the first wave of games would include it.

Secondly, and my apologies if this has been answered somewhere else, will "full package" listings of EA titles being delivered like this require the original DLC or is it safe to assume that the code is burnt up by the person who bought it?

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taintedzodiac replied on 02-16-2010 12:44 PM

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coweyeball:

Secondly, and my apologies if this has been answered somewhere else, will "full package" listings of EA titles being delivered like this require the original DLC or is it safe to assume that the code is burnt up by the person who bought it?

The FAQ was updated a few months back to specify that any one-time-use DLC codes are not required when trading (unless they are required to play the game, ala MMO's). This brought Goozex in line with Gamestop and other places where used games are sold.

This also applies to DVD/BD movies with digital copies. You should not expect the digital copy code when trading.

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coweyeball replied on 02-16-2010 12:46 PM

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Thank you for that amazingly quick response!  Now back to your regularly scheduled discussion.

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Wildo88 replied on 02-16-2010 1:41 PM

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StilesCrisis:

Actually, Orange Box went to physical media a few months after release.

I was kind of disappointed that I had to buy Portal as a digital download, since it was my only option, and then a few months later they released boxed product. I can't trade my Steam copy on Goozex :(

I bought a physical copy of L4D1 for PC and it is still linked to my Steam account... whether you buy a box or digital download of a Steam game doesn't matter, it basically only makes a difference in whether you have to download anything to install... in fact, when I reformatted a few months back, Steam downloaded L4D1 for me since I had it linked to my account

As for the main topic, I don't like the move to digital only, but I think it is inevitable... I don't think it will ever be all of the game market though, but it will definately become a larger portion of the market...

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Hexpane replied on 02-16-2010 3:50 PM

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youngmimesofharlem:

That 13.68% aren't EA's customers ANYWAY is my point.

But those are who EA is gunning for.  They WANT the peopleofwallmart crowd.  That is the "growth potential". EA does not care about current gamers, unless you buy Mass Effect 2 and Madden.

EA has openly stated their goal is to sell games to non gamers.

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taintedzodiac replied on 02-16-2010 5:19 PM

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Hexpane:

youngmimesofharlem:

That 13.68% aren't EA's customers ANYWAY is my point.

But those are who EA is gunning for.  They WANT the peopleofwallmart crowd.  That is the "growth potential". EA does not care about current gamers, unless you buy Mass Effect 2 and Madden.

EA has openly stated their goal is to sell games to non gamers.

A goal, by definition, adds to what you've already accomplished. No company's goal (at least in statements to their shareholders) is to remain where they are.

I believe you're confusing "gamers" at large with geeks/dorks/nerds/techies/Maddenites. All EA has stated is that they want to sell more games to people who buy games that are more casual or less complicated. The "sell games to non gamers" is just a marketing line. What they really mean is expanding their market share in any way possible.

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seareever replied on 02-16-2010 5:41 PM

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The problem is that Gamestop is a monopoly in the used games market. If the say they won't carry your game because your not a fan of their day two used copies then that basically means your game doesn't sell. HOWEVER, now that digital distribution and killer amazon, etc. sales online, now games are being sold brand new for less than gamestop can sell used!

ALSO, when the game sells new the proceeds go almost entirely to the developer/publisher which means? DING DING DING more games for you later. USED games make it so that the developer sells 1 copy and loses 3 potential sales because they saw it for 5$ less used (Bioshock and Dead Space For example, the latter got it worse). Gamestop pockets every penny and the developer gets none. I went to Gamestop to look around yesterday for xbox 1 and GC games and taking a look around the store they gotta be hurting...everything was about 10-20$ overpriced. Maybe I just haven't been in one in a long time but I don't remember such ridiculous prices when I can go to Half.com or Amazon and get a much much better deal.

Also, Gamestop CEO hates Steam...cause it works.

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DrJ079 replied on 02-16-2010 6:16 PM

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seareever:

The problem is that Gamestop is a monopoly in the used games market. If the say they won't carry your game because your not a fan of their day two used copies then that basically means your game doesn't sell. HOWEVER, now that digital distribution and killer amazon, etc. sales online, now games are being sold brand new for less than gamestop can sell used!

ALSO, when the game sells new the proceeds go almost entirely to the developer/publisher which means? DING DING DING more games for you later. USED games make it so that the developer sells 1 copy and loses 3 potential sales because they saw it for 5$ less used (Bioshock and Dead Space For example, the latter got it worse). Gamestop pockets every penny and the developer gets none. I went to Gamestop to look around yesterday for xbox 1 and GC games and taking a look around the store they gotta be hurting...everything was about 10-20$ overpriced. Maybe I just haven't been in one in a long time but I don't remember such ridiculous prices when I can go to Half.com or Amazon and get a much much better deal.

Also, Gamestop CEO hates Steam...cause it works.

But if none of those guys would have bought a copy because they knew they wouldn't be able to turn around and sell it off later to recoup some of their costs, you have 0 sales.   You're presuming all of these guys would have paid $60 for a new product that they knew they could get 0 back on when they finished playing it.   Or even decide shortly in they just don't like the game, I know it's hard to imagine with all of the top shelf product these guys roll out title after title, but it does happen.

I have an idea for developers if they want people to stop trading off their games - stop making them all 7 hour stories.    RPG's back in the day took forever to solve because the game didn't hold your hand the entire way and lead you through a linear world.   Action games took forever to solve because there was a real penalty to dying in the game.   Add some real innovation to your sports games rather than just buying up the NFL license and releasing virtually the same title year after year with roster updates.  Maybe make your games worth replaying for hours and we wouldn't have this problem.   Of course, people would buy less games because they wouldn't have time to beat 3 games a week.

And quite frankly, it's kind of sorry of companies to try and act like the people that keep them in business and pay their salaries are the bad guys in this whole thing because they couldn't extract every penny possible out of them.  Make good games, they sell a ton of copies.   Make crappy games, they don't.    Perhaps they should focus their efforts on not churning out crappy titles that sell very few copies before worrying about the small percentage of sales that used games impact.

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youngmimesofharlem replied on 02-16-2010 7:28 PM

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seareever:

 

ALSO, when the game sells new the proceeds go almost entirely to the developer/publisher which means? DING DING DING more games for you later.

I don't understand why this argument is continually trotted out. It's never applied to anything else; you don't buy a new car because if you don't Ford will stop making you cars in the future.

If Assassin's Creed 2 is $60 new, or $40 on craigslist, i would have to be mentally defective to pay 33% more for it just to unwrap some plastic film.

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DrJ079 replied on 02-16-2010 7:39 PM

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youngmimesofharlem:

seareever:

 

ALSO, when the game sells new the proceeds go almost entirely to the developer/publisher which means? DING DING DING more games for you later.

I don't understand why this argument is continually trotted out. It's never applied to anything else; you don't buy a new car because if you don't Ford will stop making you cars in the future.

If Assassin's Creed 2 is $60 new, or $40 on craigslist, i would have to be mentally defective to pay 33% more for it just to unwrap some plastic film.

Maybe video game companies should do a better job of lobbying so when they make a bunch of crappy games and no one buys them, Obama cuts them a big fat check to keep producing their crap.