Renaissance 2K: We'll begin trading sandwiches.
We'll begin trading sandwiches.
Downloadable-only games and movies are too impractical and complicated for the majority of people. Most folks like the convenience of just putting the disc in the drive and watching/playing, not spending hours downloading it and the figuring out how to get it to run.
Some people also have bandwidth caps; what do you tell them when they want a game but they can't have it because they've exceeded their monthly bandwidth limit? And what if they have dial-up? Or what if their internet connection is down?
Disc-based media isn't going anywhere.
My idea is that we will trade via usb drives once games become downloadable only. You buy a thumb drive plug it in and it installs the game. Once you are gone, you deactivate your copy and it allows you to sell or transfer to another system.
IrishFan: That is still far off. The PSP Go will fail well those are my thoughts.
That is still far off. The PSP Go will fail well those are my thoughts.
Agreed
I was at the NY Games Conference last week, and there was a strong debate on whether digital distribution was down the road or sooner. GameStop's CEO was quoted to believe there is a 17-year window before this goes mainstream.
Others say it's only few years away because the technology is making leaps forward every day. Though, IMO, the key driver won't be technology but pricing: Users won't spend $40 on a new game (distributed digitally) with no option of selling it back on the secondary market... and yet publishers' cost don't allow to sell big games for anything less than $40-45....
So, Goozex is here to stay a long time ;-)
I don't expect it to go all digital anytime soon either. If it did, and they didn't bother to adjust prices, I will be boycotting it. There's still so many old games I haven't played :)
The other thing you have to remember is that publishers could basically force it any damn time they please. Remember, Activision ALREADY wanted to charge $100 for the basic edition of Modern Warfare 2. If retail games are $100 and DLs are $40, I guarantee you people will get smart REAL quick. The problem with the Go/PSN, and really, it's the only one IMO, is that the PSN prices are many times MORE than retail. That's just not a good idea from any angle.
zannabianca:GameStop's CEO was quoted to believe there is a 17-year window before this goes mainstream.
Yes, because Daniel DeMatteo does not have a vested interest in delaying the demise of trade-able media for as long as possible.
Never gonna happen
Unless gamers are stupid enough to accept all games as being download-only, that'll never happen as there will always be retail games available.
I think that a market where all games are available in both formats is closer than a world where they are only available by download. I agree with others that pont out the issues of broadband penetration and storage limitations. Another issue is customer awareness. Anyone who ever discusses this is a relatively tech savvy consumer. Quite possibly the vocal minority of game consumers. There is certaily a large number of people out there who have no idea what this idea is and how they could access the service. I bet there is even a sizeable user base that does not even know what XBOX Live or the PSN even is!
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stoudman: The problem with the argument that everything is going digital download is that people have been suggesting that this would happen for almost my entire life, and it still hasn't -- why? It's simple. People want something they can OWN OUTRIGHT, they don't want to pay for something that can be taken away from them after a certain amount of time, they don't want to have to read a TOS to understand what each digital download company's definition of "ownership" really is. People are, for whatever reason, pack rats. Not only do we like something we can feel and touch, but a great number of us like to be able to collect these things.
The problem with the argument that everything is going digital download is that people have been suggesting that this would happen for almost my entire life, and it still hasn't -- why? It's simple. People want something they can OWN OUTRIGHT, they don't want to pay for something that can be taken away from them after a certain amount of time, they don't want to have to read a TOS to understand what each digital download company's definition of "ownership" really is.
People are, for whatever reason, pack rats. Not only do we like something we can feel and touch, but a great number of us like to be able to collect these things.
This is (I believe) the truth, and extremely well stated. I applaud you, sir.
there's gonna always be a mix (dl and retail), same with movies and music, not many capitalist are gonna restrict their profits/sales by only selling to those with broadband.
gamehoarders: stoudman: The problem with the argument that everything is going digital download is that people have been suggesting that this would happen for almost my entire life, and it still hasn't -- why? It's simple. People want something they can OWN OUTRIGHT, they don't want to pay for something that can be taken away from them after a certain amount of time, they don't want to have to read a TOS to understand what each digital download company's definition of "ownership" really is. People are, for whatever reason, pack rats. Not only do we like something we can feel and touch, but a great number of us like to be able to collect these things. This is (I believe) the truth, and extremely well stated. I applaud you, sir.
Thanks, bro! :P
jamotto: Yes, because Daniel DeMatteo does not have a vested interest in delaying the demise of trade-able media for as long as possible.
This isn't an argument, it doesn't refute anything, it only makes the original argument more convincing. If there are people out there in power that want to delay something like that from happening, they have the power to do so and are most likely going to put all their efforts into doing so, which means that the possibility of a complete "conversion" to Digital Download is most likely even further off than most would hazard to guess.
Discs survived a transition from 700 mb to 4.7 GB, from 4.7 GB to 50 GB, and given another 10-15 years (which is about how long it tends to take for a new disc format to surface), Discs will continue to thrive for years to come, probably long after I'm dead.
The best comparison I can make here is of the recent conversion from analog to digital television, something that has been in the works for 30-40 years now and pushed back for decades until they finally just said "Screw it, we can't wait around until joe blow redneck gets a better TV". We've been making the conversion from 4:3 to Widescreen, from analog to digital, from standard definition to high definition for over 30 years now, and yet people are still SHOCKED AND SURPRISED that this is happening, they feel as if they were caught UNAWARES!
By comparison, digital download has been around for maybe 5-10 years for certain full game downloads onto home consoles or PCs. Doing this requires the use of the internet, storage media, and of course a PC or console. The amount of people who have all three of these things when compared to the amount of people who only have one or two of these things is laughable at best. There are still many more people out there who have a console (even a new one) hooked up to an old TV playin' it in their basement with no connectivity to the internet, and they make up a HUGE amount of the sales of some of these video games.
Basically, to insist upon a forced conversion to digital download anytime soon (as in anytime in the same time frame as the analog to digital forced conversion took place) is kind of like shooting yourself in the foot as a developing company. You're limiting the money you can make, you're increasing the potential for backlash, and you're insulting fans. You thought people were mad about the conversion to digital? Howabout when people actually have a REASON to be upset, when you've taken one of their FREEDOMS away in terms of purchasing power. Digital Download isn't the same thing as owning the media outright in disc form, you don't have the same freedom to take the media wherever you want, use it however you want to, put it wherever you want to and rest assured a company exec isn't going to storm into your house and just "take it back".
When you download an mp3, what happens if you delete it? Do you get to download it again? You have to pay for it again? Well that hardly seems fair. You see, when I own a Music CD, I own the music on that CD for as long as it lasts, and I can take that music and burn it onto my computer, and put a copy of it on my iPod or whatever kind of mp3 player I have. That's my legal right as someone who has purchased and owns the CD outright! No company exec is going to storm into my house and tell me that I have to pay more money to listen to the CD because a certain amount of time has gone by, nor are they going to come into my house and break my CD and tell me "tough luck, guess you have to go buy it again! mwuahaha!"....with DITIGAL DOWNLOAD....THIS CAN...AND DOES HAPPEN. I mean nobody told you to accidentally delete your mp3, but should it happen you're SOL, pal.
I guess the point I'm trying to get across here is that there is more security in digital media formats that you can HOLD AND TOUCH AND OWN OUTRIGHT, and consumers will backlash if you try to take that security away. You'll lose too much money from the backlash to keep it up. Complete conversion of Digital Downloads is a myth perpetuated by people who still await the flying cars from The Jetsons, people who want the future to be so much more idealistic than it really will be. Leaps and Bounds in technology will never replace human behavior and emotion, we have created far too many fairy tales to warn us of the danger of doing so for us to really let it happen.
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